The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will hold its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on September 15, 2025, with most analysts expecting the policy rate to remain unchanged.
According to statement released on Friday, a poll conducted by Topline Securities showed that 72% of market participants anticipate no change in the policy rate, compared to 37% in the previous poll. The sharp rise in expectations for a status quo reflects concerns that recent floods could fuel food and overall inflation in the coming months by damaging crops and disrupting supply chains.
"While 28% are expecting a cut of 25bps and above. Within this, 6% are expecting 25bps cut, 13% are expecting 50bps cut and 9% are expecting 100bps cut," said Topline Securities.
Historical data underscores the risks. During the 2010-2011 floods, the cultivated area for major crops such as wheat, rice, and cotton declined between 3% and 18%. Rice production fell nearly 30% in FY11, according to the Economic Survey of Pakistan.
"We also expect central bank to maintain status quo in upcoming meet owing to possible inflation risks emanating from recent floods and rising imports," said Topline Securities.
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