Due to Kabul’s assurances to Islamabad on the TTP and other key issues, trade between the two sides has reached $1 billion in the first six months of 2025.

The latest report published by the Afghan Ministry of Commerce shows increasing interest in bilateral trade. According to the data, Afghanistan recorded $277 million in exports to Pakistan, while Islamabad generated $712 million in exports to Afghanistan during the first half of the current year.

Afghanistan’s major exports to Pakistan included cotton, coal, soft stone, and dry fruits. In return, Islamabad exported industrial and food items.

“Pakistan and Afghanistan are naturally trade partners linked geographically. However, new restrictions and bans on certain items have created mixed feelings among traders on both sides, resulting in a decline in trade volume. We must separate trade from politics, security concerns, and the TTP,” a senior Afghan official told The Express Tribune over the phone.

To reach previous trade levels of over $3 billion, Islamabad must show flexibility in customs duties and activate facilitation committees at all four major border points: Torkham, Ghulam Khan, Kharlachi, and Spin Boldak (Chaman). Services at the Wagah Border, Karachi, and Gwadar ports must also resume, as Afghan traders are facing difficulties at all mentioned ports, said Noor Khan, a coal trader from Jalalabad, speaking to The Tribune.

“Due to hardships at border crossings, visa issues, and restrictions from Islamabad following each security incident, trade is severely impacted. However, the six-month figures still reflect positive diplomatic engagement between Islamabad and Kabul, largely due to Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar’s visit and Ambassador Sadiq Khan’s diplomacy,” Noor Khan added.

“This is a positive development in bilateral trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan, which has nearly reached $1 billion in just the first half of 2025 (January–June). If trade continues without disruption, the bilateral trade volume could reach $2 billion by year-end,” Haq Nawaz Khan, a senior journalist with The Washington Post, told The Express Tribune.

“The current trade balance may reach the $2 billion peak witnessed a decade ago. Both sides need to intensify diplomatic efforts to raise the volume to the targeted $6 billion. This remains a daunting task due to prevailing security challenges,” Haq added.

“Trade volumes were sluggish between 2020 and 2023, staying below $1 billion. However, despite political and security obstacles and closures of trade routes, trade has continued.”

“Islamabad has been taking measures to ensure the flow of trade remains unhurt despite serious challenges. The efforts of Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar and Ambassador Muhammad Sadiq are yielding positive results, leading to unprecedented growth in both exports and imports.”

Bilateral trade data released by the Kabul Ministry of Industry and Commerce shows that trade remains tilted in Pakistan’s favour, with Pakistan accounting for approximately 70% of total trade exports, compared to Afghanistan’s 30%.

“I believe Kabul and Islamabad should address trade separately from political issues, which have significantly harmed trade in recent years,” said Haq. “The recent wave of terrorism in Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is a serious challenge, but this should not affect trade. If Pakistan and Afghanistan continue to create obstacles, other countries may capture their respective markets.”

It is pertinent to mention that Pakistan’s special envoy will visit Kabul in the coming days to ease the trade environment and discuss the TTP issue, which has raised concerns in northern and southern districts.