The federal government is set to unveil the Economic Survey for the fiscal year 2024-25 tomorrow (Monday), revealing that Pakistan failed to meet its annual growth target for the outgoing fiscal year, as key economic sectors underperformed.
According to official data shared ahead of the survey’s release, the provisional gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for FY2023-24 stood at 2.68%, significantly below the 3.6% target set by the government.
Despite this shortfall, the overall size of Pakistan’s economy expanded by $39.3 billion, reaching $410.96 billion, up from $371.66 billion last year.
In local currency terms, the economy grew by Rs9.6 trillion, with the total volume rising to Rs114.7 trillion from Rs105.1 trillion a year earlier. Per capita income also increased by $144, reaching $1,680.
The economic survey highlights an uneven performance across sectors, with some industries outperforming targets while others struggled to maintain momentum.
Agriculture
The agriculture sector recorded an overall growth of just 0.56%, missing the 2% target. Major crops saw a steep decline of 13.49%, far worse than the targeted contraction of 4.5%. The cotton ginning segment also witnessed a sharp downturn, contracting by 19%.
However, livestock and other crops showed relatively better results, growing by 4.72% and 4.78% respectively. Forestry and fishing remained below expectations.
Industry
Industrial output showed moderate strength, registering a growth rate of 4.77%, slightly above the 4.4% target. Small-scale manufacturing and slaughtering sectors recorded impressive growth of 8.81% and 6.34%, respectively. In contrast, large-scale manufacturing contracted by 1.53%.
Electricity, gas, and water supply surged by an exceptional 28.88%, far surpassing the modest 2.5% target, while the construction sector also exceeded expectations with 6.61% growth.
Services
The services sector expanded by 2.91%, falling short of its 4.1% target. Wholesale and retail trade grew by a mere 0.14%, reflecting weak consumer activity.
Sub-sectors such as information and communication, finance, real estate, education, health, and social work showed moderate gains. Public administration and social security, however, stood out with a robust 9.92% growth—nearly triple the target of 3.4%.
Overall assessment
The Economic Survey paints a picture of a mixed and unbalanced economic performance. While select sectors such as utilities, construction, and livestock delivered above expectations, critical segments like agriculture, large-scale manufacturing, and trade fell considerably short, dragging down overall growth.
The findings will set the stage for the upcoming federal budget as policymakers attempt to address sectoral weaknesses and recalibrate economic priorities for sustainable recovery.
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