A new generation of collectors is expected to boost the global art market, which is not immune to the current geopolitical and economic pressures.

The world's leading contemporary art fair, Art Basel, saw some significant deals last week. One such deal was made by London's Annely Juda Fine Art gallery, which sold a David Hockney work for between $13 and $17 million without revealing the precise amount.

The David Zwirner gallery sold a sculpture by Ruth Asawa for $9.5 million and a Gerhard Richter painting for $6.8 million.

However, prices did not reach the heights achieved in 2022, when the art market was in full swing. Back then, a sculpture by French-American artist Louise Bourgeois was purchased for $40 million.

"The market is certainly softer," Art Basel’s chief executive Noah Horowitz told AFP, though major sales still happen at such fairs "despite, somehow, all that’s going on in the world".

Switzerland’s biggest bank UBS and the research and consulting firm Arts Economics prepared a report for the fair.

According to their estimates, the art market slowed in 2023, then fell by 12% globally in 2024, to $57.5 billion, with the decline particularly affecting works valued at more than $10 million.

"In the next six to 12 months, I don’t see any changes on the horizon," said Hans Laenen, an art market specialist at insurer AXA XL.

In a time of economic and geopolitical uncertainties, "investors are turning very strongly to gold", he told AFP.

In the art sector, behaviour is "more conservative" among both buyers and sellers, who prefer to wait before putting works on the market in the current climate, he continues.

"The number of transactions is increasing," but in "lower price segments," he noted.

According to the insurance firm Hiscox, the number of lots sold for less than $50,000 increased by 20% in auction houses in 2024, while very highly priced works saw a sharp drop, indicating a change in collector behaviour.

Younger generation

According to Jean Gazancon, chief executive of art insurer Arte Generali, a younger generation of collectors is entering the market.

"We are insuring more and more 30-somethings for collections of 300,000, 500,000, or a million euros," he noted.

"These are successful start-uppers, investment bankers, lawyers, or sometimes people who have inherited," and they begin their collections "very young", sometimes making "very radical" choices, he said.

UBS expects that trend to increase. According to its projections, an unprecedented wealth transfer will take place over the next 20 to 25 years with the general ageing of the population.

Globally, around $83 trillion in assets will change hands, it says, meaning "there’s a whole new generation of collectors coming to the market with different buying patterns", said Eric Landolt, global co-head of the family advisory, art and collecting department at UBS.

The four-day Art Basel fair, which closed on Sunday, featured more than 280 galleries presenting works by around 4,000 artists.

It is a must for collectors, who can buy everything from Pablo Picasso paintings to very recent works.

The Thaddaeus Ropac galleries notably offered a portrait of Pope Leo XIV by the Chinese-French artist Yan Pei-Ming.

It also highlights young artists, such as Joyce Joumaa, 27, who jointly won the 2025 Baloise Art Prize for her work focusing on the energy crisis in Lebanon.