With food inflation remaining volatile and energy prices facing global and domestic uncertainties, economists warn that price stability in the coming months will depend on supply chain management, fiscal discipline and policy coordination. photo: file
Dun & Bradstreet Pakistan and Gallup Pakistan have released the 19th edition of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for the first quarter of FY2025-26, revealing a notable dip in sentiment. The index fell to 86.4, down from 96.2 in the previous quarter, a 10.2% decline. Despite this drop, confidence remains 18.5% higher year-on-year, signalling improvement compared to the same period last year.
The CCI tracks consumer perceptions of the economy and personal finances across four parameters: household financial situation, national economic conditions, unemployment, and savings. Both current sentiment and future outlook weakened this quarter. Current confidence plunged to 74.7 from 88, while future confidence eased to 98.2 from 104.3, reflecting cautious optimism.
Inflation remains the top concern, with 84% of respondents reporting price hikes for essential goods. Unemployment also persists as a major challenge, with a net indicator of 56.5, highlighting widespread labour market strain. Perceptions of Pakistan's economic situation dropped from 100.8 to 92.5, and fewer respondents expect improvement in the next six months.
Encouragingly, optimism about household finances endures as 62% expect stability or improvement in the coming months. Commenting on the findings, Bilal I. Gilani, Executive Director at Gallup Pakistan, said: "This quarter's drop in consumer confidence reflects inflation and weak job sentiment. People are less upbeat about the present, but they still expect the future to be better. This tells us that stability has helped, but it can only take confidence so far. Without real economic growth, consumer sentiment will not rise much further. In short, people are waiting for jobs and income to grow before they fully believe in a recovery."
Zubair Qureshi, Chief Business Officer at Dun & Bradstreet Pakistan, added: "The Consumer Confidence Index is a critical barometer for understanding market sentiment. While short-term challenges persist this quarter, the resilience in household financial expectations signals that businesses have an opportunity to align strategies with evolving consumer priorities."
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